全球电动化陷“逆潮”：欧洲撤回禁燃令，大众关闭德国工厂，福特转投增程与储能

Core Viewpoint - The global automotive industry is experiencing a significant strategic overhaul due to weak electric vehicle demand, low capital returns, and fluctuating regulatory policies, highlighted by Ford's announcement of a $19.5 billion asset write-down [2]. Group 1: Ford's Strategic Shift - Ford has announced a $19.5 billion pre-tax charge, marking one of the largest single asset write-downs in U.S. automotive history, with approximately $6 billion stemming from the dissolution of its battery joint venture with SK On [2]. - The company has officially halted production plans for the all-electric F-150 Lightning pickup and recognized substantial losses related to idle assets associated with large electric vehicles [2]. - CEO Jim Farley stated that due to high battery costs and resistance from large truck buyers towards pure electric technology, Ford will significantly shift future capital expenditures from electric models to "extended-range" hybrid vehicles [2][3]. - By 2030, Ford aims for hybrid and extended-range models to account for 50% of its global sales, up from the current 17%, while focusing on a $30,000 small pickup based on a "universal electric vehicle platform" set to launch in 2027 [3]. Group 2: Asset Reutilization and Energy Solutions - To salvage billions in idle battery capacity, Ford is implementing an ambitious "asset reutilization" plan, leveraging technology from CATL to enter the rapidly growing grid storage market due to the AI boom [3]. - Ford plans to invest $2 billion over the next two years to revamp its battery plants in Glendale, Kentucky, and Marshall, Michigan, with the Kentucky plant set to produce lithium iron phosphate batteries and energy storage systems, targeting over 20 GWh annual capacity by 2027 [3]. - The Michigan facility is scheduled to begin production in 2026, producing energy cells for residential storage systems, indicating Ford's transition from a traditional automaker to an energy solutions provider, despite temporary layoffs of about 1,600 workers during the plant modifications [3]. Group 3: European Market Dynamics - The European market is also undergoing significant contraction, with a strategic shift in policy direction that no longer seeks to completely eliminate internal combustion engines but instead embraces a "technology-neutral" approach [4]. - This policy adjustment allows for the long-term viability of synthetic fuels and plug-in hybrid technologies, effectively postponing the "death" of internal combustion engines indefinitely [4]. - Volkswagen has confirmed the permanent closure of its Dresden "Transparent Factory," ending 88 years of production continuity in Germany, due to collapsing market demand and high operational costs [4][5]. - Volkswagen's CFO acknowledged severe cash flow pressures, leading to a reduction in the five-year investment budget from €180 billion to €160 billion, reallocating funds originally intended for aggressive electrification to extend the lifespan of fuel engines [4]. Group 4: Asian Market Challenges - In Asia, particularly Japan, policy changes are increasing barriers to the adoption of electric vehicles, with the government planning to introduce a "weight tax" based on vehicle weight starting May 2028, impacting heavier electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles [6]. - This decision aims to address the revenue shortfall from declining gasoline vehicle sales and requires heavier vehicles to contribute to road maintenance costs, reflecting a shift in balancing fiscal contributions from fuel and electric vehicles post-subsidy reductions [6].