新周期锂电“缺芯”蔓延？“扩产”治标，“技术升级”治本

Core Viewpoint - The new cycle in the lithium battery industry emphasizes practical end-user demand with specific scenarios, leading to stronger order fulfillment and a focus on high-quality, stable, and scenario-adapted capacity expansion [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The "chip shortage" has become a norm in the battery industry, with leading battery manufacturers operating at nearly 90% capacity utilization. Industry consensus indicates that capacity expansion is necessary, but new capacity will not effectively alleviate the shortage until at least Q2 of next year [2]. - The chairman of High-tech Lithium Battery, Dr. Zhang Xiaofei, stated that over 700 GWh of new effective capacity is expected next year. The previous cycle saw structural overcapacity due to homogenization in lithium battery technology, while the new cycle demands innovation in performance and technology from both the battery and its supply chain [3]. - The advent of the TWh era necessitates faster battery production to ensure stable shipments, prompting discussions among equipment companies about comprehensive strategies for the new cycle [3]. Group 2: Application and Technology - The expansion of application scenarios for lithium batteries is driving new requirements for battery forms and manufacturing equipment. Emerging scenarios are expected to foster a variety of new technologies and battery forms [5][6]. - The next-generation solid-state batteries require new composite current collectors, with companies like Yinglian introducing products aimed for mass production by 2025-2027. Equipment companies face challenges in safety and quality, necessitating innovative and collaborative approaches [7][8]. Group 3: Supply Chain Dynamics - Recent months have seen long-term contracts become a primary method for battery companies to stabilize their upstream supply chains. This shift reflects a move away from the previous cycle's focus on aggressive expansion towards a more stable and quality-oriented approach [9]. - The significant orders in the current market compel both material and equipment manufacturers to enhance their capabilities to meet demand, focusing on large-scale production to reduce costs and mitigate future risks [10][11]. - The application of temperature control equipment in lithium battery production is crucial for energy efficiency, with companies like Yudian and EK developing comprehensive solutions to support the entire production process [12][13].