美银2026年半导体展望：AI基建升级关键中点，芯片销售有望首破“万亿”美元大关

Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is projected to experience significant growth, with global semiconductor sales expected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time in 2026, reaching $1.01 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 29% [2][5] - AI semiconductor investments are anticipated to grow by over 50% year-on-year, driven by strong data center utilization, supply constraints, and competition among large language model builders, hyperscale cloud providers, and government clients [5] - The wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) market is expected to see nearly double-digit year-on-year growth, with sales projected to reach $131.3 billion in 2026 and $150 billion in 2027, reflecting a 9.7% and 14% increase respectively [6][7] Semiconductor Equipment Outlook - Semiconductor equipment companies are expected to perform well in 2026, benefiting from AI infrastructure demand and capacity expansion [6] - Despite current stock price premiums, the WFE market size is projected to reach $150 billion by 2027, which is not fully reflected in current valuations [6] - Preferred companies in this sector include KLA and Lam Research, which are expected to see significant market share growth in the foundry/logic and memory sectors [6] Advanced Packaging and Emerging Themes - The advanced packaging market has grown significantly, with sales in this area increasing by 22% over the past year, impacting the growth potential of major semiconductor equipment companies [8] - Emerging themes identified for 2026 include co-packaged optical devices (CPO), robotics, and quantum computing, with CPO expected to outperform traditional copper wiring [10][11] - Companies like Teradyne are well-positioned in the robotics sector, while quantum processors (QPU) are seen as having the potential to disrupt traditional computing paradigms [11] Semiconductor Design Automation - The analog semiconductor sector remains cautious due to limited macro demand and expected declines in automotive production amid slowing EV growth [9] - In the electronic design automation (EDA) space, companies like Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys are viewed as high-quality investment opportunities, benefiting from increasing semiconductor complexity and resilient R&D spending [9]