国泰海通 · 晨报1219｜宏观、传媒

Macroeconomic Analysis - The narrow revenue growth has slowed down, with national public budget revenue increasing by only 0.8% year-on-year from January to November 2025, and the growth rate in November being flat compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - Narrow budget expenditure grew by 1.4% year-on-year from January to November 2025, with a decline of 3.7% in November, indicating a marginal narrowing of the decline compared to October [1] - The overall fiscal expenditure growth remains low, influenced by prior fiscal efforts and year-end budget adjustments, with key areas like health, technology, and environmental protection seeing leading expenditure growth [1] Government Fund Analysis - Government fund budget revenue decreased by 4.9% year-on-year from January to November 2025, with a significant decline of 15.8% in November [2] - Government fund budget expenditure increased by 13.7% year-on-year from January to November 2025, with a notable recovery in November, growing by 2.8% compared to a decline of 38.2% in October [2] - The increase in expenditure is attributed to the allocation of 500 billion yuan from the central government to support local investment projects [2] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The fiscal balance remains tight, with moderate revenue growth constraining expenditure amid economic growth and real estate market transitions [3] - Expenditure is becoming more targeted and effective, with a clear focus on key areas such as social welfare and technological innovation [3] - The decision-makers plan to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, with an expected narrow fiscal deficit rate of around 4%, emphasizing structural optimization and enhancing local fiscal sustainability [3] IP Fun Food Industry Analysis - The IP fun food sector, which combines IP with food and collectible gifts, is rapidly growing, driven by consumer demand for emotional consumption [6][7] - The market size of China's IP food industry is projected to grow from 18.1 billion yuan in 2020 to 35.4 billion yuan by 2024, with a CAGR of 18.2%, while the IP fun food segment is expected to grow from 5.6 billion yuan to 11.5 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 19.6% [7] - The growth is fueled by the younger generation's increasing emotional consumption needs and the mature supply chain of the snack industry in China [7] Competitive Landscape - The core competitiveness in the IP fun food market lies in supply chain management and IP operation, with low differentiation in snack products making cost control crucial [8] - The market remains fragmented, with leading companies holding only 7.6% market share, indicating a competitive environment with many small players [9] - The differentiation provided by IP toys as gifts is key to achieving premium pricing in a market where snack products lack inherent differentiation [8][9]