【广发宏观吴棋滢】11月财政收支情况简评

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in China's fiscal revenue and expenditure, highlighting a decline in revenue growth due to high base effects from the previous year and a slowdown in public budget expenditure, particularly in infrastructure-related spending. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue Trends - In November, fiscal revenue showed a year-on-year growth of 0.0%, down from 3.2% in the previous year, primarily due to high base effects from the same period last year [1][4] - The cumulative public budget revenue for the first 11 months of the year increased by 0.8% year-on-year, marking one of the lowest growth rates in the past decade, only better than 2020 and 2022 [1][4] - Major tax categories showed varied performance, with corporate income tax experiencing a significant decline, while personal income tax and domestic value-added tax remained strong, with personal income tax growing by 11.5% year-to-date [5][6] Group 2: Public Budget Expenditure - Public budget expenditure recorded a year-on-year decline of -9.8% in October and -3.7% in November, with cumulative expenditure progress for the first 11 months at 84%, slower than previous years [2][8] - Expenditure related to infrastructure, particularly in rural and community sectors, saw significant declines, while technology spending grew by 27.4% year-on-year in November [2][9] - The public budget revenue-expenditure gap reached 4.8 trillion yuan, with a deficit progress of 62%, influenced by the slowdown in infrastructure spending [12] Group 3: Broader Fiscal Context - Government fund budget revenue fell by 15.8% year-on-year, indicating a continued weak performance in the income side, aligning with the downturn in real estate data [15][16] - The article emphasizes the importance of observing fiscal trends in early 2026, as the first quarter will be critical for assessing the impact of policy financial tools and investment stabilization efforts [3][15]