中金2026年展望 | 煤炭：供给存在约束，煤价中枢平稳

Core Viewpoint - The coal price is expected to show a trend of low first and high later in 2026, with the annual average likely to remain similar to that of 2025. Demand may be a major drag, but supply-side constraints are relatively strong [2][9]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The coal industry is not facing overcapacity. The unexpected decline in coal prices this year is attributed to excessive production beyond approved capacity, which poses challenges to safety and environmental standards. If supply-demand conditions become overly loose, policies may tighten supply under reasonable and legal pretenses [2][11]. - The demand for thermal coal is expected to remain at a peak platform. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, green energy may start to squeeze existing coal power demand, but overall electricity demand is projected to grow steadily, maintaining thermal coal demand at a peak level with limited risk of significant decline [2][9]. Coking Coal Supply and Demand - The supply of domestic coking coal is expected to have limited upward elasticity in 2026, but imports from Mongolia may increase, leading to a relatively loose overall supply of coking coal. The uncertainty surrounding steel production cuts may affect actual reductions [3]. Historical Review of 2025 - The supply was rational in 2025, leading to a rebound in coal prices. From mid-2024 to July 2025, coal prices were under pressure due to weak demand and intensified competition. However, from July 2025 onwards, supply contraction and stabilizing demand led to a rebound in coal prices [6][5]. 2026 Outlook - Coal prices are expected to be low in the first half of 2026 and improve in the second half, with the average price likely to remain stable compared to 2025. The demand may be weak initially, but marginal improvements are anticipated later in the year [9][20]. Cost and Supply Constraints - The coal industry is experiencing rising costs due to resource depletion, safety investments, and increased labor costs. The average cost of coal for listed companies has been gradually increasing from 2016 to 2023, indicating that even low-cost leading companies are facing cost pressures [12][19]. - The overall debt pressure in the coal industry has decreased, providing a stronger basis for rejecting "involution-style" competition. The industry is transitioning from debt-driven production activities to profit-driven ones [19]. Non-Electric Coal Demand - The demand for coal in construction and steel is stabilizing at a low level due to weak real estate and infrastructure. However, chemical coal demand is a growth highlight, with significant increases driven by project launches and profitability [26]. Supply Outlook - Domestic coal production is expected to be released in a rational manner, with supply contraction as the main theme in the second half of 2025. The industry policies will likely focus on safe and orderly capacity release to avoid irrational price declines [28][30]. - New capacity additions are relatively limited, with a decrease in new projects and capacity increases observed in 2025 compared to 2024 [30].