中金2026年展望 | 农林牧渔：行至中局，强者谋新

Group 1: Industry Outlook - The "new paradigm of the pig industry" and the "golden age of the pet economy" are expected to continue, with leading companies in the pig and pet industries experiencing growth and value enhancement [2] - The pig industry is characterized by a new paradigm where leading companies are expected to maintain stable profits while reducing costs and increasing value [5][8] - The supply-demand dynamics for agricultural products are expected to improve marginally, with grain prices anticipated to rise from their lows [20][27] Group 2: Pig Industry Insights - The new paradigm in the pig industry is marked by a reduction in price volatility, with the average pig price expected to decline moderately in 2026 [6][8] - The supply of pigs is projected to increase slightly in 2026, with the average breeding sow inventory showing a minor year-on-year increase [9][11] - Leading pig companies are adopting a growth paradigm focused on cost reduction, value enhancement, and international expansion [13] Group 3: Poultry Industry Insights - The chicken supply remains ample, with leading companies expected to leverage advantages in breeding, channels, and branding to enhance operational premiums [15][16] - The poultry industry is undergoing structural changes, with a focus on improving channel efficiency and brand recognition to drive profitability [18] Group 4: Pet Industry Insights - The pet food market is experiencing significant growth, with online sales increasing by 21.5% year-on-year, indicating a strong market concentration among leading brands [30][31] - The competition in the pet food industry is intensifying, with brand differentiation becoming more pronounced as companies focus on high-end product innovation [33][43] - The pet food industry is expected to maintain a growth rate of around 10% over the next 3-5 years, driven by increased penetration of professional pet food [43] Group 5: Feed Industry Insights - The domestic feed market is expected to strengthen, with leading companies poised to increase their market share as they expand internationally [20][23] - The global feed market is characterized by low concentration, providing opportunities for leading companies to establish a competitive advantage through comprehensive product offerings and global expansion [23] Group 6: Agricultural Products Insights - Grain prices are expected to recover from their lows, with corn prices projected to rise moderately due to improved supply-demand dynamics [26][27] - The overall agricultural landscape is shifting towards a "great navigation era," with advancements in agricultural technology and AI integration [2][20]