赵伟：非典型复苏将至，“资金再平衡”重塑A股价值

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the technological revolution is irreversible, supported by China's vast market, which allows for multiple rounds of trial and error, forming a complete industrial and supply chain that external fluctuations cannot shake. This perspective was shared by Zhao Wei, Chief Economist at Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, during the Southern Finance Forum 2025 [4]. Economic Outlook - Zhao Wei predicts that the economic trend in 2026 will enter a "non-typical recovery" phase characterized by "stable volume and rising prices," where prices shift from a downward spiral to a moderate recovery, leading to improved corporate profits and micro-level confidence [4]. - Structural differentiation will continue, with significant disparities in policy support across different economic sectors, resulting in an unbalanced recovery [4]. A-share Market Insights - Regarding the current discussions on the revaluation of A-shares, Zhao Wei suggests focusing on "capital rebalancing" rather than "value revaluation." He notes that after 2022, the market was overly pessimistic about fundamentals, with the overall A-share dividend yield exceeding the national bond yield by 100 basis points, indicating a severe mispricing of the market [5]. - Four major events have reversed market expectations: changes in the policy environment post-September 2024, the emergence of DeepSeek shifting investment thinking from macro to micro, concerns over U.S. policy stability due to "reciprocal tariffs," and discussions on "anti-involution" leading to a shift of fixed-income funds towards equity assets [6]. Technological Revolution and Investment Opportunities - Zhao Wei maintains an optimistic view on the AI bubble, asserting that the fourth technological revolution will not end due to short-term market fluctuations. He highlights China's unique advantage of a large consumer market that allows for extensive trial and error, ultimately leading to a robust industrial and supply chain [6]. - As the process of "capital rebalancing" deepens in 2026, opportunities in the A-share market are expected to emerge continuously, encouraging investors to seize investment opportunities arising from the non-typical recovery and the new technological revolution [7].