数据点评 | 财政的四大发力点（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The focus of future fiscal revenue and expenditure may be on maintaining deficits, standardizing tax incentives, supplementing local financial resources, and resolving hidden debts [2][48]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first eleven months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 200,516 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, while expenditure was 248,538 billion yuan, up 1.4% year-on-year [6][47]. - The divergence in fiscal revenue and expenditure in November showed improved expenditure but pressured income, with broad fiscal expenditure down 1.7% year-on-year, a significant narrowing of the decline by 17.5 percentage points compared to October [2][7]. - Broad fiscal revenue fell by 5.2% year-on-year in November, further declining by 4.6 percentage points from October [2][50]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Fiscal Performance - The divergence in fiscal revenue is partly due to base disturbances and the ongoing drag of land finance, with November 2024 broad fiscal revenue showing a recovery of 11% year-on-year, creating high base pressure [8][48]. - The income growth rate weakened, further constraining overall financial expansion space, while the low performance of land finance persisted [2][8]. Group 3: Support for Fiscal Expenditure - The 5,000 billion yuan limit on local special bonds and the implementation of financial tools became significant supports for broad fiscal expenditure in November, with government fund expenditure turning positive [10][49]. - Despite the ongoing drag from land finance and short-term pressure on income, the fiscal expenditure growth rate is expected to continue recovering due to the support from the local debt limit [10][49]. Group 4: Future Fiscal Strategy - Looking ahead to 2026, the focus of fiscal revenue may emphasize maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and standardizing tax incentives and fiscal subsidy policies [13][48]. - The expenditure side will prioritize addressing local fiscal difficulties and urging local governments to actively manage debts, targeting both the stock of hidden debts and the flow issues of local financial resources [13][48].