美国11月CPI爆冷：申万期货早间评论-20251219

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. November CPI data showed a lower-than-expected increase, with the core CPI rising by 2.6% year-on-year, the slowest growth since early 2021, and the overall CPI increasing by 2.7%, below the expected 3% [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. November core CPI increased by 2.6%, the slowest growth since early 2021, and overall CPI rose by 2.7%, lower than the expected 3.1% [1][2]. - The U.S. non-farm payroll data showed a mixed result, with 64,000 new jobs added, better than the expected 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% [2][18]. - The likelihood of a Fed rate cut in January increased from 26.6% to 28.8% following the CPI data [7]. Group 2: Precious Metals - The lower-than-expected CPI data has raised questions in the market, but the overall downward trend in CPI provides room for rate cuts, supporting precious metal prices [2][18]. - Long-term factors such as weakened dollar credibility and central bank gold purchases continue to support precious metals, despite short-term volatility [2][18]. Group 3: Shipping Industry - The European shipping index saw a decline, with the 02 contract dropping by 3.06%. However, shipping companies are maintaining a price support stance for late December and early January [3][31]. - The MSC and Maersk have adjusted their pricing strategies, with Maersk's rates for January showing a decrease compared to earlier quotes, indicating potential pressure on freight rates [3][31]. Group 4: Commodity Insights - The dual focus on coking coal and coke shows a stable market with slight fluctuations in inventory and production levels, indicating a potential stabilization in the near future [2][23]. - The iron ore market is experiencing slight price fluctuations, with a decrease in daily iron output and ongoing adjustments in steel mill procurement strategies [2][25]. Group 5: Agricultural Products - The soybean market is facing slow export sales, with the U.S. Department of Agriculture's reports providing limited bullish support, leading to a generally weak adjustment in soybean prices [26]. - The sugar market is under pressure from seasonal supply increases and high production costs, leading to a pessimistic market sentiment despite low absolute price levels [28]. Group 6: Energy Sector - The crude oil market is influenced by Saudi Arabia's record high export levels, while geopolitical tensions may lead to new sanctions affecting energy supplies [13]. - Methanol prices are experiencing slight declines, with inventory levels decreasing, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [14]. Group 7: Financial Markets - The stock indices are showing mixed performance, with the banking sector leading gains, while overall market sentiment remains cautious ahead of upcoming economic meetings [10]. - The bond market is experiencing slight increases in prices, supported by expectations of continued monetary easing from the Fed [12].