【广发宏观陈嘉荔】11月美国通胀降温：可能存在停摆扰动下的失真

Core Viewpoint - The delay in the release of the US CPI report due to the government shutdown has led to significant data gaps, particularly for October, which may result in increased statistical noise and reduced effectiveness as a policy indicator [1][5][7]. Group 1: CPI Data Analysis - The US CPI for October to November increased by 2.7% YoY, lower than the previous value of 3.0% and below the expected 3.1% [2][11]. - The core CPI increased by 2.6% YoY, also below expectations and the previous value of 3.0% [2][11]. - The significant weakness in core CPI is attributed to the BLS's assumption of zero growth for October prices, which affected the largest components, particularly housing [2][12]. Group 2: Statistical Methodology - The BLS employed a carry-forward methodology for CPI calculation, assuming no price changes for certain items during the data collection gap, which artificially suppressed the reported inflation figures [7][8][9]. - The absence of October data means that the CPI calculation for housing (OER) may only reflect half of the expected increase, leading to a potential rebound in future data [9][12]. Group 3: Core Goods and Services Inflation - Core goods inflation showed a significant slowdown, with an average monthly increase of only 0.03%, far below the expected 0.3% [3][13]. - Core services inflation also fell short of expectations, with an average monthly increase of just 0.08%, primarily due to weak performance in OER and major residence rent [14][15]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Initial jobless claims fell to 224,000, aligning with market expectations, while continuing claims rose to 1.897 million, slightly above expectations [4][16]. - Following the CPI data release, market expectations for interest rate cuts remained stable, with a 47.3% probability of a cut in March [4][16]. Group 5: Sector Performance - The stock market rebounded, with major indices such as the Dow Jones and S&P 500 showing gains, particularly in sectors like technology and semiconductors [4][17]. - Risk appetite improved, with sectors like engineering, software, and consumer discretionary also performing well, while energy and financial sectors lagged [17].