全球人形机器人调研纪要（2025）

Core Insights - The humanoid robot sector is currently experiencing unprecedented attention globally, particularly in China, where it is supported by policies and government funds, indicating a promising future for the industry [2][24]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The humanoid robot market is characterized by a competition among major players, with many startups likely to fail in the commercialization process. Most large companies are still in the early stages of development, with no commercially viable bipedal humanoid robots available yet [3][24]. - The primary focus of major automotive and tech companies is on self-research and investment in embodied intelligence, but they lack expertise in manufacturing and core component development, which is crucial for humanoid robots [3][24]. Group 2: Investment Trends - The primary market remains vibrant, with continued capital enthusiasm and the emergence of new startups. However, there are various "non-consensus" views within the industry, and the window of opportunity has not yet closed [4]. - The secondary market is seeing significant gains, particularly in the upstream supply chain, with companies linked to Tesla's Optimus project experiencing substantial stock price increases [4][13]. Group 3: Commercialization Progress - By 2025, leading humanoid robot companies are expected to achieve initial commercialization, with domestic companies showing progress that exceeds that of their foreign counterparts. However, the actual commercial scenarios remain limited to research, education, and entertainment [5][24]. - The distinction between "hardware-first" and "software-first" approaches among domestic startups is evident, with hardware-focused companies prioritizing educational and research applications, while software-focused companies emphasize AI capabilities [5][6]. Group 4: Technological Developments - The dual-system architecture, specifically the VLA model, has emerged as the mainstream technical path in the field of embodied intelligence, with no consensus reached on technology convergence yet [9][24]. - The development of dexterous hands and multi-modal tactile sensors is gaining traction, as these components significantly influence the overall performance of humanoid robots [11][24]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The aging care sector is anticipated to become a key focus area for humanoid robot startups, reflecting the growing demand for robotic solutions in healthcare and elder care [12][24]. - The IPO rush among leading startups indicates a shift towards the secondary market, with companies like Zhiyuan Robotics and Yushun Technology initiating their IPO processes [12][24].