野村全球宏观经济展望：预计2026年全球经济将强劲增长

Core Viewpoint - The report anticipates that the investment boom driven by artificial intelligence, along with more supportive monetary and fiscal policies, will continue to propel strong global economic growth in 2026 [5] Global Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to show resilience despite trade-related disruptions and policy uncertainties, with a stable and accelerating growth pattern anticipated for 2026 [6] - Fiscal constraints will be a significant theme in 2026, with concerns over inflation and financial repression if budget deficits are not controlled [6] Major Economies Macroeconomic Outlook United States - The U.S. economy is projected to maintain resilience, leading growth among developed markets with a real GDP growth of 2.4% [8] - Labor market conditions are expected to improve, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.0% by year-end [8] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to lower interest rates twice in June and September 2026 [8] Europe - The Eurozone is expected to enter a more constructive phase, with fiscal policy becoming a core issue and economic growth accelerating, particularly in the second half of 2026 [9] - The European Central Bank is likely to maintain deposit rates at 2.00% as inflation remains near target levels [9] China - China's GDP growth is forecasted to slow to 4.3%, with a drop to 4.1% in the first half of 2026, followed by a rebound to 4.5% in the second half due to policy stimulus [10] - The central economic work conference has continued a stance of "moderate easing" in monetary policy [10] Japan - Japan's economy is expected to continue its recovery, with core inflation projected to fall below 2% in the first quarter of 2026 [11] - The Bank of Japan may extend the pause on interest rate hikes for an additional year [11] Other Asian Countries - Strong AI demand and the supercycle of storage chips are expected to lead to differentiated economic growth across various countries in Asia [12] - Countries like South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, and India may see GDP growth exceeding market expectations, while Thailand and the Philippines may underperform [12]