忽视悲观——为什么COP30是一次成功

Core Viewpoint - The sentiment surrounding COP30 is low, with many interpreting the outcomes as difficult to achieve and lacking inspiring compromises. However, the meeting should be viewed as a "good performance" since it marks a critical point in global climate negotiations, particularly with 2025 being a key year for countries to submit new, more ambitious emission reduction commitments [1][2]. Summary by Sections Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) - The year started poorly for NDCs, with the U.S. announcing its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and 95% of signatories failing to submit new targets on time. By the end of August, this figure remained at 85%, indicating a near failure of the NDC process just three months before COP30 [2]. - However, a late rebound occurred in the eight weeks leading up to COP30, with two-thirds of countries announcing or formally submitting new 2035 targets. Once India announces its new NDC by year-end, three-quarters of global emissions will be covered by these new targets, with only two G20 members yet to propose specific new goals [2]. Significant New Commitments - Major emerging economies, including China, Indonesia, Turkey, Brazil, and Mexico, have committed to absolute reductions in emissions after reaching their peak, indicating that development and decarbonization can proceed in parallel [2]. - Developed economies have also set important new targets, with the EU establishing a legally binding NDC to halve emissions within ten years and again halve them in the following five years. The UK has set even more ambitious goals, while Japan, South Korea, and Australia have made significant new commitments [3]. Progress and Implications - The new national targets suggest a significant acceleration in emission reductions post-2030, with an estimated average annual reduction of 2.5%–3.4% from 2030 to 2035 among 17 G20 countries, compared to only 0.5%–0.7% from 2023 to 2030. While this is not sufficient to meet the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting global warming to well below 2°C, it represents substantial progress and indicates that transition risks for investors will accelerate in many key markets [4]. - Focusing solely on the dynamics of COP30 overlooks the fact that the Paris Agreement has just passed a critical stress test, impacting the growth of the green economy and corporate transition plans. The NDC process remains a source of genuine progress, even amid political divisions and geopolitical turmoil [4].