基金经理请回答 | 对话田瑀：库存是观察白酒行业拐点的先行指标吗？

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in high-end liquor prices is attributed to cyclical demand fluctuations rather than a narrowing of the industry's competitive moat [2][3]. Inventory and Demand - There has been a mismatch between reported demand and actual market demand for high-end liquor in recent years, leading to increased inventory levels among distributors [3]. - The average inventory turnover days for liquor reportedly reached 900 days, a 10% increase year-on-year, but the accuracy of this figure is questioned due to seasonal sales variations [4][5]. - The calculation of inventory turnover days can vary significantly based on the data used, and short-term metrics may not accurately reflect the true inventory situation [5][8]. Production Capacity - Production capacity is considered less critical in the analysis of high-end liquor, as the manufacturing process varies significantly among different types of liquor [6]. - For example, certain types of liquor require long aging periods, which means that current production levels can be estimated based on historical inventory [6]. Market Dynamics - The high-end liquor market is influenced by economic activity, with demand for business dining being a key driver [12]. - The distinction between "face consumption" (business dining) and "practical consumption" (self-drinking) is important, as the former is less likely to be affected by economic downturns [11][12]. Inventory Cycle and Brand Value - The impact of inventory cycles on long-term brand value is minimal, but excessive inventory can lead to price erosion, which may harm brand perception [12][13]. - The management of inventory levels is crucial to maintaining the perceived scarcity and value of high-end liquor [13][15]. Consumer Preferences - Regional preferences exist in the mid-range liquor market, but high-end liquor has become more standardized across regions, reducing the impact of local tastes [10]. - The consumption patterns in high-end liquor are more stable, with a focus on social contexts that reinforce brand loyalty and recognition [11]. Investment Considerations - The relationship between inventory levels and stock prices is not straightforward, as effective management of inventory can lead to positive stock performance despite market pressures [18]. - The long-term investment outlook for high-end liquor remains positive due to its strong competitive moat and pricing power [18].