商品宏观全景图：2026能否孕育新一轮大宗商品牛市？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the main driving force for future commodities will be overseas, particularly the "big fiscal" cycle in the United States and AI capital expenditure, which is unprecedented since World War II [4][25] - The report quantifies the demand for copper and aluminum driven by AI data centers, highlighting it as a significant growth driver for the coming years [4][31] - The consensus ranking for commodities is established as non-ferrous metals > precious metals > agricultural products > energy > ferrous metals, reflecting the current market pricing consensus [4][15][66] Group 2 - The analysis delves into the vulnerabilities behind the consensus, noting that the market may underestimate the complexity of domestic capacity clearance, which has been disrupted by traditional paradigms [5] - The report warns against over-reliance on the current supply-demand balance, suggesting that structural changes may not be fully priced in [5] - The retreat from global decarbonization consensus is particularly evident in Asia, where energy security and economic considerations are overshadowing climate agendas, potentially impacting commodity pricing [5] Group 3 - Several coherent themes for trading opportunities are proposed, including the re-inventorying and competition for key minerals driven by geopolitical tensions [6][7] - The rise of the renminbi is highlighted, with expectations that its internationalization will gradually weaken the traditional pricing power of LME compared to SHFE [7] - The report advocates for an "odds thinking" approach, suggesting that when market consensus is overly optimistic, investors should seek undervalued opportunities [7] Group 4 - The article draws historical parallels between current fiscal, technological, and geopolitical characteristics and the "stagflation" commodity bull market of the 1970s, indicating a potential for another "high-light year" in the commodity market [8][9] - The U.S. fiscal deficit is projected to remain historically high, with significant implications for economic resilience and corporate capital expenditure, particularly in AI-related infrastructure [25][24] - The report notes that AI capital expenditure is expected to account for over 60% of U.S. GDP growth, underscoring its critical role in the economy [25]