日本央行与政府对是否加息存在分歧，后续需关注央行态度｜国际

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised interest rates by 25 basis points, reaching a 30-year high of 0.75%, amidst a divergence of opinions between the central bank and the government regarding the necessity of further rate hikes [3][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - On December 19, the BOJ raised rates to 0.75%, marking a significant increase [3]. - BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated a gradual approach to future rate hikes, contingent on sustained inflation [3]. - There is a notable disagreement with the government, particularly from former BOJ Deputy Governor Masayoshi Takeda, who advocates for a cautious approach to rate increases, emphasizing fiscal policy over monetary tightening [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the rate hike, the Japanese yen briefly strengthened against the US dollar, driven by investors repatriating funds [5]. - However, due to Japan's high debt levels, the yen may revert to a weaker position in the long term, with UBS predicting the USD/JPY exchange rate could test 160 by 2026 [5]. - The market's reaction to the rate hike was less severe than in 2024, attributed to three factors: high market expectations, reduced short positions in the yen, and a misalignment in monetary policies between the US and Japan [6]. Group 3: Impact on Global Markets - The Japanese stock market showed a mixed response, with financial stocks benefiting from increased net interest margins, while export stocks faced pressure from yen appreciation [6]. - The US and European markets are experiencing a pullback in high-value tech stocks due to capital outflows, although historical data suggests the S&P 500 tends to rise in the months following a BOJ rate hike [6]. - The liquidity in the bond market is tightening, with potential repatriation of Japanese investments in overseas bonds leading to increased yields on US and European bonds [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Attention will be on Governor Ueda's future statements, particularly if he signals a hawkish stance regarding further rate hikes in 2026, which could lead to market volatility [9]. - For the A-share market, domestic economic recovery and policy outlook remain crucial, with historical trends indicating limited impact from the BOJ's rate hike [9]. - The current rate hike is viewed as a "ripple" rather than a "tsunami," suggesting that while short-term fluctuations are expected, global markets are likely to remain resilient [9].