晚点LatePost·2025-12-19 10:53Core Viewpoint - The "Wei Xiaoli" trio (NIO, Li Auto, and Xpeng) is approaching a growth bottleneck by the end of 2025, with each facing unique challenges in the rapidly changing electric vehicle market [3][6][34]. Sales Performance - In November 2025, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 1.354 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7% and a month-on-month increase of 6% [4]. - The delivery numbers for November 2025 were as follows: Li Auto delivered 33,181 units, Xpeng delivered 31,671 units, and NIO delivered 35,646 units [5][8]. - Xpeng's market share dropped from a peak of 2% to 1.4%, indicating a significant decline in sales performance despite the launch of new models [7][8]. - Li Auto's sales have stagnated around 30,000 units, moving away from previous highs of over 50,000 units per month [10][19]. - NIO's sales structure is under pressure, with five models selling less than 1,000 units in November, raising concerns about future performance [19]. Individual Company Challenges - Xpeng is heavily reliant on its M03 model, which accounted for over 40% of its total sales, indicating a structural issue in its product lineup [12]. - Li Auto is experiencing a "growth trap," with its market share consistently falling below 1.5% despite new product launches [10][21]. - NIO has a diverse product lineup but struggles with maintaining sales momentum, particularly as new models like the ES8 face declining sales after initial success [19][27]. Strategic Directions - The companies are exploring "second growth curves" to diversify their offerings. Li Auto has introduced pure electric models, while Xpeng has focused on lower-priced models to capture market share [22][23]. - NIO is also working on expanding its product range but needs to streamline its offerings to focus on key models for better sales efficiency [27][34]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying with traditional automakers accelerating their electric vehicle transitions and new entrants like Huawei and Xiaomi entering the market [34]. Future Outlook - The companies are expected to face significant challenges in 2026, including potential policy changes regarding subsidies and increased competition [34]. - Each company is focusing on product innovation and operational efficiency to navigate the evolving market dynamics and ensure profitability [30][31][34].