国泰海通｜固收：核心-卫星框架下的EM主权债投资——可落地的2026海外债策略债券年报

Core Viewpoint - The overseas bond market in 2026 is expected to exhibit a pattern of "interest rate decline and credit differentiation within a moderate easing cycle," with emerging market sovereign debt presenting a significant allocation window [1] Group 1: Economic Environment - Global central banks are entering a differentiated easing cycle, with developed economies experiencing a slowdown in growth, while emerging markets maintain a medium to high growth rate of 5-7% driven by supply chain restructuring and manufacturing spillover [1] - Overall inflation in emerging markets has decreased from 5.2% to 4.0%-4.3%, falling faster than in developed economies, creating space for monetary policy easing [1] - The US dollar index, after a 15-year strong cycle, is expected to enter a phase of moderate decline in 2026, leading to a significant alleviation of global liquidity pressure and a trend of funds flowing back into emerging market assets [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Emerging Market Sovereign Debt - Emerging market sovereign debt benefits from three key allocation advantages: 1. The debt environment has improved significantly, with no new sovereign defaults since the end of 2023, a continuous decline in corporate default rates, and government leverage ratios significantly lower than those of developed economies, leading to a relatively lighter debt sustainability pressure and upgrades in credit ratings for multiple countries [2] 2. There is a notable yield advantage, with the 10-year government bond yields of major emerging economies rising over 360 basis points, placing them at high levels since the global financial crisis, offering significantly higher nominal and real yields compared to US and European bonds, highlighting strong carry value [2] 3. Geopolitical restructuring and industrial chain spillover are creating structural growth momentum, with countries like ASEAN, India, and Mexico leveraging labor, location, and policy advantages to attract "capacity transfer" from outside China, resulting in a positive cycle of export expansion, accelerated FDI inflows, and alleviated fiscal pressures, thereby improving sovereign credit [2] Group 3: Investment Strategy - A "core-satellite" allocation framework is recommended, where core positions consist of investment-grade or near-investment-grade hard currency sovereign debt, complemented by medium to long-term structures to benefit from the decline in US Treasury rates and the compression of sovereign credit spreads, providing stable income sources [3] - Satellite positions should include high-yield sovereign debt (BB, single B ratings) and local currency bonds, which can achieve stronger total returns under improved risk appetite, a declining dollar, or stabilizing fundamentals in emerging markets, with a steeper convergence of spreads [3] - Duration allocation can be adjusted based on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path and market volatility, with a focus on countries in Latin America and Asia-Pacific that have stable fundamentals and are at the early stages of a rate-cutting cycle [3] - Policy-wise, the expansion of southbound trading to include brokerages, funds, insurance, and wealth management institutions, along with a shift in RMB internationalization from "cautious advancement" to "promotion," provides institutional convenience for domestic investors' global allocation [3]