国泰海通｜轻工：行业监管趋严，不合规产能有望加速出清——电子烟行业政策跟踪

Core Viewpoint - The global e-cigarette industry is entering a new product life cycle and regulatory enforcement period, with major brands actively engaging in market cultivation, leading to accelerated industry expansion. Companies with product technology and supply chain competitiveness are recommended for investment [1]. Regulatory Environment - On December 18, 2025, the State Council issued an opinion on cracking down on illegal tobacco activities, emphasizing strict regulation of e-cigarettes. Key measures include comprehensive strengthening of e-cigarette regulation, severe penalties for illegal production, wholesale, transportation, and sales, as well as enhanced efforts against e-cigarettes containing addictive substances [1]. - The policy aims to combat non-compliant e-cigarette exports from the source, accelerating the clearance of excess industry capacity [1]. Market Impact - The leading compliant manufacturer, Smoore International, is expected to benefit from the tightening of industry regulations. The company's vaping business is anticipated to improve due to changes in the regulatory environment in the U.S. and Europe, with further upward adjustments expected by 2026 [1]. - British American Tobacco forecasts a single-digit decline in its vaping business in the second half of 2025, a significant improvement compared to a 13% decline in the first half of 2025, primarily due to strengthened enforcement at federal and state levels in the U.S. [2]. - Sales of the Vuse brand in states implementing e-cigarette product listings increased by 7% [2]. Export Data - According to Chinese customs, the export value of e-cigarettes to the U.S. from May to July 2025 saw significant year-on-year declines of 39%, 67%, and 14% respectively [2].