红利品种，为何容易出现低估？｜第423期直播回放

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance and risk of dividend indices, highlighting their long-term advantages over the market, including lower volatility and consistent returns [3][5]. Group 1: Long-term Performance - Dividend indices have historically outperformed the market with lower volatility, typically exhibiting 60%-70% of the market's volatility [3]. - From November 14, 2014, to December 17, 2025, the annualized return of the Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen dividend low-volatility total return index reached 13%, with a maximum drawdown of -33.19%, while the CSI All Share Total Return Index had an annualized return of 6.21% and a maximum drawdown of -55.78% [3]. Group 2: Sources of Returns - The returns from dividend index funds can be broken down into three main sources: undervalued purchases leading to valuation gains, annual profit growth of approximately 6%-7% from underlying companies, and dividend income closely tied to the purchase time's dividend yield [5]. Group 3: Conditions for Underperformance - Dividend indices may underperform the market under certain conditions, such as when bond yields are high. In 2024, U.S. bond yields reached 4%-4.5%, while the dividend yield of U.S. dividend index funds was around 4%, making them less attractive [6]. - Another scenario for underperformance is during growth style bull markets, where indices like the ChiNext Index have shown significantly higher gains compared to the dividend low-volatility index [8]. Group 4: Investment Principles - Investing in dividend index funds should focus on undervalued purchases to reduce holding period volatility, enhance future valuation upside, and increase the attractiveness of dividend yields [10]. - Buying during undervalued phases provides a safety cushion against market fluctuations, making it easier for investors to maintain their positions [12]. Group 5: Attractiveness of Dividend Indices - Dividend indices are often easier to find at undervalued levels due to their strategy of selecting high dividend yield stocks, which typically have lower price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios [19]. - Regular rebalancing of dividend indices tends to favor the inclusion of undervalued stocks and the exclusion of overvalued ones, effectively implementing a buy low, sell high strategy [20]. Group 6: Comparison with Other Strategy Indices - Similar to dividend indices, other strategy indices such as value, low volatility, and free cash flow indices also exhibit defensive characteristics and are likely to present undervalued investment opportunities [22].