消失的 10 月报告与“0%”的住房假设：美国通胀暴跌背后的真相

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unexpected decline in the U.S. core CPI inflation rate to 2.6%, the lowest level since March 2021, and analyzes the implications of this change for the economy and market expectations [4][7]. Inflation Data Summary - The overall inflation rate and core inflation rate both decreased by 40 basis points, marking one of the largest year-on-year declines since 2023 [7]. - The core CPI was expected to rise but instead fell to 2.6% from 3.0% [9]. - The CPI report for October was canceled due to data collection issues caused by a government shutdown, leading to significant assumptions in the data [10][12]. Housing and Energy Impact - Housing inflation has been a major driver of recent inflation increases, but it has shown a downward trend since 2023, aligning with overall inflation trends [17]. - Oil prices have dropped to their lowest level since February 2021, with a decrease of $25 per barrel since the inauguration [21]. - If the downward trend in inflation continues, it could lead to significant deflationary pressures, allowing the Federal Reserve to focus on the labor market [24]. Market Reactions and Expectations - Following the CPI report, market expectations for interest rate cuts have increased, with a 28% probability of a 25 basis point cut at the January 28 meeting [26]. - Despite the decline in inflation rates, consumers continue to express concerns about rising prices, indicating a complex inflationary environment where prices are still increasing but at a slower rate [29]. - The year 2026 is anticipated to be significant for the market, with a new Federal Reserve chair and potential fiscal stimulus measures expected to create volatility [31][33].