东吴汽车黄细里团队·2025-12-19 16:52Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is at a new crossroads in 2026, with the end of the electric vehicle (EV) boom and the rise of smart technology. Investment opportunities lie in commercial vehicles and two-wheeled vehicles, focusing on finding resilient alpha varieties and embracing the next industrial trends of smart technology and robotics/AIDC [4][10]. Group 1: Automotive Sector Investment Strategy - The automotive industry should reference the years 2011 and 2018 for strategic insights. The focus is on finding resilient alpha varieties and embracing the next industrial trends, particularly in smart technology and robotics/AIDC [4][10]. - The total domestic demand for passenger vehicles in 2026 is expected to be 22 million units, a decrease of 3.5% year-on-year, while the demand for new energy vehicles is projected to reach 13.2 million units, an increase of 6.4% [5][10]. - The wholesale sales of heavy trucks are forecasted to be 1.16 million units in 2026, with a year-on-year increase of 1.5%. Domestic sales are expected to decline by 5.5% to 770,000 units, while exports are projected to rise by 18.8% to 390,000-400,000 units [5][27]. Group 2: Key Investment Opportunities - In the bus sector, the top picks are Yutong Bus and Jinlong Automobile. For motorcycles, the preferred choices are Chunfeng Power and Longxin General. In the heavy truck sector, China National Heavy Duty Truck and Weichai Power are favored. For passenger vehicles, BYD is the primary choice, with Jianghuai Automobile as a secondary option. In the parts sector, Fuyao Glass, Xingyu Co., and Minth Group are recommended [6][10]. - The L4 RoboX investment opportunities focus on the B-end software sector over C-end hardware. Preferred stocks include XPeng Motors, Horizon Robotics, and others in the H-share market, while A-share selections include Qianli Technology and Desay SV [7][10]. - The robotics and AIDC investment opportunities are highlighted, with a focus on the upcoming Optimus V3 overseas and the rapid development of domestic robotics. Key selections include Top Group for robotics and liquid cooling, and Junsheng Electronics for robotics [7][10]. Group 3: Market Forecasts - The passenger vehicle market is expected to see a total sales volume of 22 million units in 2026, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%. New energy vehicle sales are projected to reach 13.2 million units, an increase of 6.4% [5][17]. - The heavy truck market is forecasted to have a wholesale volume of 1.16 million units in 2026, with domestic sales declining by 5.5% to 770,000 units, while exports are expected to rise by 18.8% [5][27]. - The bus sector is anticipated to maintain a strong export growth rate of over 30%, with domestic sales expected to reach 81,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 3% [5][32]. Group 4: Motorcycle Market Insights - The motorcycle industry is projected to have total sales of 19.38 million units in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 14%. The large-displacement motorcycle segment is expected to reach 1.26 million units, a 31% increase [5][34]. - Domestic sales of large-displacement motorcycles are expected to reach 430,000 units, a 5% increase, while exports are projected to be 830,000 units, a 50% increase [5][35]. Group 5: Future Trends and Innovations - The penetration rate of smart driving technology in new energy vehicles is expected to rise to 40% by 2026, with significant growth in the use of domestic chips [22][23]. - The heavy truck export market is expected to recover, with significant growth in regions such as Southeast Asia and Africa, driven by local infrastructure and mining demands [28][29].