BABA(US:BABA) 经济观察报·2025-12-20 03:15Core Viewpoint - The clothing industry is facing a decline, prompting merchants to control production through pre-sales as a strategy to "exchange time for survival space" [1][7]. Group 1: Pre-sale Dynamics - Pre-sale is defined as the sale of products before they officially enter the market, a practice that has evolved since its introduction by platforms like Taobao in 2012 [5]. - In 2024, major platforms like Taobao and JD.com announced the cancellation of pre-sales during the "618" shopping festival, but reintroduced them during "Double 11," indicating a fluctuating reliance on this sales model [5]. - Merchants like "DuoDuo" utilize pre-sales to manage inventory effectively, often only producing a fraction of the total orders based on expected return rates [6][11]. Group 2: Consumer Experience and Challenges - Consumers have expressed frustration with pre-sales, citing issues such as indefinite shipping times, order cancellations, and quality concerns [4][18]. - A survey indicated that 78% of respondents believe pre-sale periods are lengthening, with 80% stating that extended pre-sales diminish their shopping experience [18]. - The average return rate for some merchants has escalated, with "A Jie" reporting an increase from 50% to 80% in return rates, largely attributed to consumer behavior changes [15]. Group 3: Production and Supply Chain Implications - The overall scale of the clothing industry is shrinking, with significant declines in revenue and profit reported by major companies [7]. - Manufacturers face challenges with production timelines, as frequent changes in orders and styles lead to increased costs and inefficiencies [20][22]. - The shift towards smaller order quantities has resulted in higher production costs, complicating the supply chain for manufacturers [22]. Group 4: Regulatory and Market Trends - New regulations from platforms aim to shorten pre-sale periods to improve consumer experience, yet complexities in the industry mean that not all products can be treated the same [24]. - Some merchants are exploiting category misclassifications to extend pre-sale periods, indicating a potential loophole in the regulatory framework [25]. - Experts suggest that while pre-sales can lead to inefficiencies, they also represent a shift towards demand-driven production, which could be beneficial if managed properly [25].