每周推荐 | 流动性“顺风”（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "deposit migration" and highlights three common misconceptions in the market regarding excess savings and their implications for investment behavior [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Misunderstanding One: Underestimating Excess Savings - The market's discussion on "excess savings" often focuses on fixed deposits while neglecting the scale of wealth management funds. The excess savings calculated based on deposits is less than 4 trillion, but when considering all types of funds, the total excess savings approaches 10 trillion, indicating that the market may underestimate the funds available for investment [2]. Misunderstanding Two: Underestimating the Speed of Investment - "Non-bank deposits" are commonly tracked to gauge the scale of "migration," but this metric includes interbank business disturbances. By using "non-bank net liabilities," which excludes such disturbances, two rounds of high growth have been observed since September 24, suggesting that residents are experiencing two rounds of "deposit migration," with a more pronounced effect expected in the second half of this year [3]. Misunderstanding Three: Underestimating Investment Sensitivity - Since 2021, residents have excessively allocated their excess savings to fixed-income assets, which have seen a significant decline in excess returns. This situation makes it challenging to meet residents' reinvestment intentions amid a backdrop of accelerating declines in housing prices. The process of "rebalancing" funds may continue into 2026 as nominal GDP gradually recovers [4].