磷酸铁锂涨价潮背后，锂电产业的“反内卷”博弈

Core Viewpoint - The recent price surge of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) contrasts sharply with the three-year downward price trend in the lithium battery industry, raising questions about whether this increase is a temporary relief for companies or a sign of a fundamental shift in the industry [2][4]. Price Increase Drivers - The primary driver of the recent price increase in LFP is the rise in costs of upstream raw materials, including lithium salts and various auxiliary materials [3]. - Lithium carbonate, which constitutes over 40% of the cost of LFP, has seen its price rise significantly, with market prices reaching between 97,200 to 100,000 yuan per ton, marking an increase of over 50% from mid-year lows [4]. - Other chemical raw materials for LFP production have also experienced price increases, with phosphoric acid and other components rising by 6.9% to 8.5% in November [4]. Demand and Market Dynamics - The demand for LFP is primarily driven by the electric vehicle (EV) and energy storage markets, with the latter expected to see substantial growth [6][7]. - In 2025, China's energy storage lithium battery shipments are projected to reach 580 GWh, with a growth rate exceeding 75% [7]. - The Chinese automotive industry has reported significant growth in EV production and sales, with a year-on-year increase of 31.4% in production and 31.2% in sales from January to November 2025 [6]. Industry Challenges and Responses - Despite the price increases, many LFP manufacturers are still operating at a loss, with only 16.7% of companies in the sector reporting profitability [10]. - The recent price hikes provide a much-needed respite for struggling LFP manufacturers, with some companies reporting positive outcomes from negotiations with clients [10]. - The industry is also witnessing a shift towards higher-quality products, with companies focusing on high-pressure density LFP products that offer better profitability [10]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that lithium prices may continue to rebound in 2026, driven by a tightening supply-demand balance in the lithium market [6]. - The market for LFP in the energy storage sector is expected to grow significantly, with policies supporting the expansion of new energy storage capacity [8]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with companies needing to focus on technology, capital, and supply chain integration rather than just production capacity and pricing strategies [11].