【招银研究|海外宏观】超预期回落——美国CPI通胀数据点评（2025年11月）

Core Viewpoint - The November US CPI inflation data significantly underperformed market expectations, with the CPI year-on-year growth dropping to 2.7% (market expectation: 3.1%) and core CPI increasing by 2.6% (market expectation: 3.0%), marking the lowest level since March 2021 [1][4]. Group 1: Commodity Inflation - US commodity inflation peaked and then declined, with the CPI inflation rising by 2.1 percentage points to 1.9% from April to September, followed by a decrease of 0.1 percentage points to 1.8% in October and November. The month-on-month growth rate also slowed significantly, with a total increase of only 0.1% in October and November compared to 1.0% in August and September [5][6]. - The decline in commodity inflation is influenced by four main factors: 1. The base effect shifted from supporting to dragging down inflation, with commodity prices cumulatively falling by 0.6% from May to October 2024, which will support inflation readings in the same period of 2025 [8]. 2. The marginal support from the wealth effect on consumption has receded, as the US stock market entered a volatile phase in Q4, leading to a drop in retail sales growth to 0% in October [8]. 3. The impact of tariffs on commodity prices is diminishing, with a total increase of only 0.1% in October and November after a high increase of 1.0% in August and September [8]. 4. Statistical data distortion due to delayed reporting and missing data for October, which may have led to assumptions of unchanged prices for certain commodities [8]. Group 2: Housing Services - The decline in housing services inflation may be overstated, but the downward trend remains unchanged, with the CPI for housing services dropping by 0.5 percentage points to 3.0% in November. Major rent prices increased by 0.1% month-on-month, while owners' equivalent rent rose by 0.3% [9]. - The housing services inflation continues to be pressured by both the housing market and employment factors, with national home price growth slowing to 1.3% year-on-year in September, and high prices and interest rates keeping transaction volumes low [9]. Group 3: Other Services - Non-housing services inflation further softened due to slowing wage growth and weakening consumer momentum in Q4, with the year-on-year growth rate dropping to 3.0% in November and average hourly wages in private services decreasing to 3.4% [12]. - Price increases for major service categories have generally slowed, with restaurant and domestic service prices showing slight declines, while medical service prices have significantly slowed due to a cooling job market and wage growth [14]. Group 4: Strategy - Despite potential underestimation of inflation readings, the trend of slowing inflation has not fundamentally changed. Factors include stock market volatility impacting consumer spending, high interest rates and housing prices suppressing the housing market and housing services inflation, and a cooling job market affecting the wage-price spiral [15]. - The US Treasury market reacted cautiously to the November CPI data, with expectations for rate cuts in January and March remaining largely unchanged, and the first rate cut priced around April [16].