金融大家评 | 人民币为何走强？明年能否破“7”？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent appreciation of the RMB against the USD, highlighting the factors driving this trend and the outlook for the currency in 2026, emphasizing the importance of external and internal economic conditions [2][3][7]. Group 1: Reasons for RMB Appreciation - The appreciation of the RMB is primarily driven by two forces: the weakening of USD credit and the Federal Reserve's easing policies [3]. - A significant factor supporting the RMB's appreciation is the shift in foreign trade enterprises' willingness to convert their earnings, reversing a three-year trend of reluctance to do so [3]. - The recent capital inflow, particularly after the Fed announced a new easing cycle, has been largely attributed to foreign trade enterprises' increased currency conversion activities [3]. Group 2: Central Bank's Management of Cross-Border Liquidity - The central bank has effectively managed cross-border liquidity by lowering swap market premiums to control the pace of foreign capital inflow and guiding domestic expectations through the midpoint rate [4]. - The goal is to align domestic and foreign pricing with the central bank's expectations, achieving a "three-price unification" [4]. Group 3: Changes in RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - Since April, the negative spread between the RMB midpoint and spot exchange rates has been notable, indicating that the midpoint has been guiding the appreciation of the spot rate [5]. - Seasonal factors, such as increased currency conversion by foreign trade enterprises and overseas workers sending money home before the Lunar New Year, are expected to support the RMB's strength [5]. - The recent shift from a negative to a positive spread between the midpoint and spot rates may reflect adjustments in the central bank's stance [6]. Group 4: Outlook for RMB Exchange Rate in 2026 - The RMB is expected to appreciate gradually in 2026, influenced by the restructuring of the international monetary system and the U.S. government's preference for a weaker dollar [8]. - The narrowing of interest rate differentials between China and the U.S. is likely to support the RMB, as the Fed continues its easing cycle [8]. - Increased internationalization of the RMB, supported by China's competitive manufacturing sector, is anticipated to enhance the currency's attractiveness and stability [8]. Group 5: External Factors and Uncertainties - The impact of U.S.-China tariffs on the RMB is expected to diminish as both economies show resilience under trade pressures [9]. - However, uncertainties remain, including domestic economic stability and external trade relations, which could affect the RMB's performance [12]. - The potential for further depreciation of the USD, driven by the Fed's policies and economic conditions, may also influence the RMB's trajectory [11].