财政“跨周期”的底气——11月财政数据点评

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future outlook of China's fiscal revenue and expenditure, emphasizing the importance of tax revenue growth and the government's fiscal policies in supporting economic stability and growth [4][7][12]. Group 1: Fiscal "Cross-Cycle" Support - The central economic work conference has reiterated the concept of "cross-cycle" fiscal policies, with the Ministry of Finance emphasizing the need to align with these directives for the upcoming year [7][8]. - The revenue side is identified as a crucial source of support for fiscal stability, with a shift in focus from increasing debt to maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels [8][9]. - Tax revenue has shown a significant recovery this year, with the budget execution situation for broad fiscal revenue being the best since 2022, indicating a potential budget surplus for the first time in years [9][12]. Group 2: Future Revenue Support Logic - Three main factors are expected to support revenue growth in the coming year: the tax effects of a bull market, corporate responses to internal competition, and government measures to enhance actual tax rates [12][16][18]. - The bull market is projected to contribute approximately 310 billion yuan in incremental tax revenue, accounting for about 2% of the expected tax revenue for 2024 [12][16]. - The government's focus on standardizing tax incentives and subsidies is anticipated to raise actual tax rates, addressing the current low effective tax rates due to inter-governmental tax competition [18][22]. Group 3: November Fiscal Data Review - In November, fiscal revenue showed a year-on-year decline of 5.2%, while fiscal expenditure decreased by 1.7%, reflecting ongoing challenges in the fiscal landscape [2][40]. - Tax revenue continued to grow despite high base effects, with significant contributions from value-added tax and personal income tax, while non-tax revenue continued to decline [22][23]. - The government’s land sales revenue experienced a substantial drop of 26.8%, indicating volatility in this revenue source, which is critical for local governments [40][48].