张小飞：锂电越火，钠电越有希望

Core Insights - Sodium batteries are expected to achieve a scale of 100 GWh by 2030, driven by the increasing demand for batteries due to full electrification and the limitations of lithium batteries [1][14] - The entry of major lithium battery companies into the sodium battery sector is boosting industry confidence and supporting the development of a more robust supply chain [4][5] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The demand for batteries is rising due to full electrification, but the supply of lithium batteries will remain constrained for a considerable time, allowing sodium batteries to penetrate certain applications [3] - Major lithium battery manufacturers are increasingly investing in sodium battery technology, which enhances industry confidence and supports the establishment of a comprehensive supply chain [4][6] Group 2: Cost and Commercialization - Sodium battery costs are projected to decrease by over 10% next year, which will enable more application scenarios to emerge [7] - Key players are focusing on automotive and energy storage applications, driven by policy and cost-effectiveness, while smaller companies are exploring diverse commercialization opportunities [7] - New applications for sodium batteries are emerging, with start-ups successfully commercializing solutions for various sectors, including start-stop power sources and electric heavy trucks [7] Group 3: Technological Advancements - The most significant technical bottleneck for sodium batteries is the anode technology, with leading companies seeking breakthroughs in anode-free technology [8] - The raw materials for sodium battery anodes are primarily sourced from coconut shells, but the industry is exploring alternatives such as bamboo carbon and coal-based materials [9] Group 4: Future Outlook - The global supply of lithium salts is expected to decrease, potentially leading to a significant supply gap and price increases for lithium batteries, while sodium batteries are anticipated to benefit from scale production and technological advancements [11] - The BOM cost of sodium batteries is projected to reach 0.2-0.5 yuan/Wh, making them increasingly competitive with lithium batteries [11][13] - Sodium battery shipments are expected to double next year, reaching a scale of 5-10 GWh, with a long-term goal of achieving 100 GWh by 2030 [14]