中国国有企业估值的“表象之谜”与“结构真相”｜论文故事汇

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the valuation differences between state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and private enterprises (PEs) in China, challenging the common belief that SOEs are undervalued. It reveals that SOEs exhibit a structural characteristic of low Price-to-Book (PB) ratios but high Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratios, providing a new perspective on the valuation logic of SOEs and the optimization of the capital market [2][4][6]. Valuation Differences - The discussion on the valuation differences between SOEs and PEs has been ongoing, especially with the introduction of the "中特估" concept. The prevailing narrative in the market suggests that SOEs are undervalued, but this article seeks to explore the reasons behind this perception and whether it is justified [4][5]. - Research indicates that contrary to the domestic view, studies based on East Asian economies often find that SOEs have higher valuations than PEs, highlighting a significant gap between public perception and academic findings [4][5]. Importance of Valuation Issues - The valuation of SOEs is crucial as they play a significant role in national strategy, industrial security, and employment stability. The valuation levels of SOEs affect not only investors' asset allocation strategies but also the efficiency of resource allocation in the capital market and the direction of SOE reforms [5]. Key Findings - The empirical research reveals that SOEs have a PB ratio that is significantly lower by 8.15% compared to non-SOEs, aligning with the common narrative of undervaluation. However, SOEs also have a PE ratio that is higher by 13.44% than non-SOEs, presenting a paradox that challenges the simplistic view of SOE valuation [7][8]. - This duality in valuation metrics suggests that SOE valuation cannot be simply categorized as undervalued or overvalued; rather, it represents a complex picture where different perspectives (asset vs. earnings) yield contrasting results [8]. Structural Perspective - The findings encourage a structural perspective on SOE valuation, suggesting that the valuation logic of SOEs is multifaceted and cannot be captured by a single metric. This approach lays the groundwork for further exploration of the economic logic behind the divergence in PB and PE ratios, such as future excess returns and differences in capital costs [8].