2026年中国资本市场展望：A股怎么看？怎么配？｜资本市场

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to continue its bull market, driven by strong macroeconomic policies, industrial transformation, capital market reforms, and sustained inflow of funds, despite potential short-term fluctuations [10][15]. Group 1: A-share Market Performance - In 2025, the A-share market experienced a significant bull market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising from approximately 3200 points at the beginning of the year to around 3900 points by year-end, reflecting a robust upward trend [7]. - The market saw an 8.5% increase in the first quarter, followed by a strong rebound after a brief panic due to a tariff war, with the index reaching 3350-3400 points [7]. - By the third quarter, the index surged from 3400 points to over 3900 points, marking a cumulative increase of 12.7% [7]. Group 2: Supporting Factors for the Bull Market - Macroeconomic policies are expected to remain supportive, with a focus on stabilizing the economy through proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [10]. - The ongoing industrial transformation is anticipated to release new growth momentum, with emerging sectors such as AI, renewable energy, and advanced manufacturing becoming increasingly prominent in the A-share market [11]. - Capital market reforms are deepening, enhancing resource allocation efficiency and improving investor returns through measures like regularized delisting and increased dividend payouts [12]. Group 3: Sector Opportunities - The technology growth sector, particularly AI, energy storage, and aerospace, is highlighted as a key investment focus, with AI expected to be the leading investment theme in 2026 [22]. - The energy storage sector is projected to experience significant growth, driven by increasing demand from AI data centers and improvements in supply chain dynamics [29]. - The commercial aerospace industry is entering a rapid development phase, supported by favorable policies and growing market demand for satellite internet and other applications [30]. Group 4: Metal Sector Insights - The performance of the non-ferrous metal sector is closely linked to metal prices, with significant price increases observed in copper, aluminum, and rare earth metals due to strong demand and supply constraints [33]. - Copper demand is expected to rise due to its critical role in AI infrastructure and energy transition, while supply remains constrained due to slow new capacity additions and geopolitical factors [34]. - The small metals sector, including rare earths and lithium, is anticipated to benefit from supply-demand tightness and increasing applications in various industries [36].