黄金、铜这一轮行情之后，接下来怎么看？

Core Viewpoint - 2025 is expected to be a significant year for gold and copper, driven by both structural and cyclical factors, with gold prices reaching new highs due to investment demand and geopolitical influences [1] Group 1: Factors Driving Gold and Copper - Both gold and copper are influenced by cyclical factors, such as economic conditions, and structural factors, which are independent of these cycles [2][3] - For copper, a structural supply shortage is anticipated due to geopolitical issues and resource nationalism, alongside increased demand driven by tariffs and AI expectations [3] - Gold is expected to benefit from a cyclical tailwind due to declining economic growth and interest rates in the U.S., as well as structural support from new tariff policies starting in April 2025 [3][4] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The investment framework remains focused on fundamental supply and demand relationships, with AI enhancing research and trading efficiency [5][6] - Central bank gold purchases have significantly altered the supply-demand balance, driven by concerns over U.S. Treasury yields and geopolitical risks [8][9] - In copper, a notable increase in U.S. copper inventories and potential tariffs on imports are expected to shift supply dynamics [9] Group 3: Geopolitical Considerations - The changing geopolitical landscape is reshaping global production and consumption patterns, with both the U.S. and China adjusting their strategies [10][12] - A new model called "3+ factors" has been developed to analyze the impact of monetary factors, inflation, and geopolitical risks on gold prices [13] Group 4: Long-term Investment Value of Gold - Investors are advised to balance growth and safety in their portfolios, recognizing that gold represents a safe asset while also considering inflation risks [15][16] - The structural and cyclical benefits for gold in 2025 may not persist into 2026, necessitating a cautious approach to future investments [17][18]