这一轮牛市的下一步，2026年该怎么走？

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese market is expected to enter an extraordinary "bull market" in 2025, driven by industry trends, fundamental improvements, and external liquidity narratives, with significant attention on the subsequent direction of the "bull market" in 2026 [1] Group 1: Credit Expansion Direction - The global market in 2025 exhibited several counterintuitive characteristics, including diverse asset performance and significant asset rotation, particularly in the Hong Kong stock market, where different themes emerged each quarter [3] - Credit expansion is identified as the core explanatory logic for these phenomena, providing insights into the relative performance of tech stocks, dollar trends, and global asset flows [3] Group 2: U.S. Economic Recovery and Stock Market - The discussion on "de-dollarization" reveals that while it exists, it is not a universal trend, as some funds are increasing their holdings in U.S. Treasuries while others push gold prices to new highs, indicating a bifurcation in global asset allocation [5] - The U.S. economy and stock market are expected to recover, with a potential for overheating, particularly in the AI sector, which, while having high expectations, has not yet reached the exuberance seen during the 2000 internet bubble [5][6] - U.S. fiscal policy is projected to expand in 2026, with the "Great American Rescue Plan" potentially contributing an additional 1% to growth, and the real estate market may recover if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates [6] Group 3: Chinese Market and Scarce Return Assets - The Chinese market in 2026 is characterized by excess liquidity chasing scarce return assets, with macro liquidity remaining ample despite insufficient effective demand [8][9] - The real estate sector is crucial for influencing household balance sheets and consumer expectations, which in turn affect market participation and wealth effects [9] - The effectiveness of macro policies in 2026 will depend on their ability to stimulate private sector leverage, focusing on matching costs and returns to sustain credit expansion [9] Group 4: Asset Allocation Recommendations - The asset allocation strategy for 2026 should focus on four key sectors: AI and dividend stocks, strong cyclical sectors like copper and aluminum, and selective new consumption stocks that may offer long-term value [10]