英伟达电力大会后续—北美电力缺口扩大，HRSG产业逻辑梳理

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the competition in the AI data center sector is increasingly focused on electricity and energy efficiency, with North America's electricity shortage expected to be a major topic in the coming year, driving demand for gas turbines and related equipment [2]. Group 1: Industry Demand and Trends - The gas turbine industry is expected to experience sustained demand due to North America's electricity shortage, leading to upward revisions in EPS and performance growth metrics across the sector [2]. - Key potential events that could drive industry sentiment include price increases in gas turbines, performance updates from major players like Siemens Energy, GE, and Mitsubishi, and ongoing strong performance from domestic and international gas turbine supply chain companies [2][3]. - The article outlines a three-dimensional improvement in the industry characterized by increased shipment volumes, rising prices due to shortages, and improved profit margins through cost reductions and efficiency gains [3]. Group 2: HRSG Demand and Supply Dynamics - HRSG (Heat Recovery Steam Generators) are critical components in natural gas combined cycle power generation, accounting for 30-40% of the capacity of gas turbine units, and are essential for addressing the growing electricity gap in North America [4]. - The average price of HRSG units is estimated to be between $9 million and $10 million, with significant economic returns for power plants, enhancing their internal rate of return (IRR) [4]. - The supply of HRSGs to North America is constrained by various barriers, including policy restrictions that prevent the import of Chinese-made equipment, resulting in a tight supply situation [5][6][7]. Group 3: Supply Chain Challenges - The construction of HRSG production capacity overseas faces significant challenges, including the need for skilled labor, stringent regional requirements for factory approvals, and high technical standards that exceed domestic capabilities [8][9]. - The article notes that the current supply of HRSGs capable of serving North America is limited, with only a few production lines in countries like Thailand, South Korea, and Vietnam [10][11]. - A projected supply-demand gap for HRSGs in North America is expected to persist from 2026 to 2030, with an average shortfall of 20-30%, potentially reaching a peak gap of 40-50% in 2027-2028 [10][11]. Group 4: Price Expectations - Given the significant supply-demand gap, HRSG prices are expected to rise by over 20% by 2026, with prices potentially doubling by 2028 compared to 2025 levels [11]. - The article suggests that the price elasticity of HRSG products will be high due to their relatively low value contribution, indicating that prices will increase in response to supply shortages [11].