［12月21日］美股指数估值数据（日元加息落地，对市场有啥影响？）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in global stock markets, particularly focusing on the impact of the Japanese yen's interest rate hike and its implications for investors. It emphasizes the cyclical nature of interest rates and the potential investment opportunities arising from these fluctuations. Group 1: Market Trends - This week, global stock markets experienced a slight decline followed by a rebound, with the U.S. stock market showing minor fluctuations [3][4]. - The first half of the week saw a downturn in global markets, attributed to the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike of 25 basis points, which was in line with market expectations [5][18]. Group 2: Interest Rate Impact - The yen's interest rate increase is characterized as a "gray rhino" event, indicating it was anticipated rather than unexpected [6][7]. - Japan's interest rates have been on a downward trend since the 1980s, reaching near-zero levels from 2015 to 2020 due to high household debt levels during the 80s and 90s [8][9][10]. - Recently, Japan's 10-year government bond yield has risen from near zero to around 2%, influenced by rising inflation and improved consumer spending power [16]. Group 3: Global Market Reactions - The impact of the yen's interest rate hike on global markets has been relatively minor compared to the significant declines seen during the U.S. dollar's rate hikes in 2022 [18][19]. - The U.S. dollar's influence on global markets is more substantial due to its larger market size, and the focus remains on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [19][20]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Interest rates are cyclical, and historical trends suggest that the latter stages of rate hike cycles often present undervalued buying opportunities [22][24]. - The article notes that the global stock market currently has a valuation rating of around 3.1 stars, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical standards [30][31]. Group 5: Investment Products - The article mentions the availability of global stock index funds in overseas markets, which have a substantial scale exceeding one trillion dollars, while domestic markets currently lack such products [33]. - A new "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" has been introduced, which diversifies investments across various stock markets, including U.S., UK, Hong Kong, and A-shares [34][36].