国泰海通证券研究·2025-12-21 13:51Market Overview - The market is currently in a weak oscillation state, with both sentiment model signals and moving average strength index indicating a difficult short-term breakout from this oscillation pattern [1][2] - The liquidity shock index for the CSI 300 was 0.41, lower than the previous week’s 0.51, indicating current market liquidity is above the average level of the past year by 0.41 standard deviations [2] - The PUT-CALL ratio for the SSE 50 ETF decreased to 0.83 from 1.08, suggesting a decline in investor caution regarding the short-term performance of the SSE 50 ETF [2] - The average turnover rates for the Shanghai Composite Index and Wind All A were 1.05% and 1.60%, respectively, indicating a decrease in trading activity [2] Economic Indicators - The onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates saw weekly increases of 0.2% and 0.28%, respectively [2] - In the U.S., the non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000 in November, exceeding the market expectation of 50,000, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021 [2] - China's economic data for November showed a 4.8% year-on-year increase in industrial value added, a 4.2% increase in the service production index, and a 1.3% increase in retail sales [2] Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - The SAR indicator showed that the Wind All A index broke above the reversal indicator on December 1 [2] - The market score based on the moving average strength index is currently at 170, which is at the 60.6% percentile for 2023 [2] - The sentiment model score is 0 (out of 5), indicating a negative trend model signal and a negative weighted model signal [2] Market Performance - For the week of December 15-19, the SSE 50 index rose by 0.32%, while the CSI 300 index fell by 0.28%, and the ChiNext index dropped by 2.26% [3] - The current market PE (TTM) is 21.8 times, which is at the 72.7% percentile since 2005 [3] Factor and Industry Analysis - The profitability factor crowding degree continues to rise, with small-cap factor crowding at 0.22, low valuation factor crowding at -0.51, high profitability factor crowding at 0.05, and high profitability growth factor crowding at 0.22 [3] - The industry crowding degree is relatively high in telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, comprehensive, power equipment, and basic chemicals, with significant increases in crowding for defense and military industry and commercial retail [4]