国泰海通｜计算机：AI开花，科技自立，计算机拐点将至

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that "large models + large computing power + large data" is a primary route to achieving general intelligence, with the Scaling Law still holding true as foundational models rapidly iterate [1] - Recent releases of foundational models like Gemini 3.0 and DeepSeek 3.2 indicate a fast-paced evolution in language, visual, and multimodal capabilities, with anticipation for DeepSeek V4/R2 [1] - The demand for AI applications is accelerating, as evidenced by Alibaba's Qianwen APP reaching over 30 million monthly active users within 23 days of public testing, and Tencent's AI investments driving growth [1] Group 2 - The "pan-sinicization" movement is penetrating from government and party sectors into industries, aiming to build a self-sufficient ecosystem, with state-owned enterprises required to replace various information systems with domestic alternatives [2] - The demand side is supported by policies promoting "domestic goods for domestic use," with a focus on enhancing the resilience and security of key industrial supply chains [2] - On the supply side, the China Information Security Evaluation Center updated its guidelines to include new categories for CPU product evaluations, reflecting a push for domestic technology development [2] Group 3 - The impact of tariffs is noted, with the proportion of overseas income in the computer sector showing a fluctuating upward trend from 11.20% in 2019 to 14.75% in 2024, indicating a degree of desensitization to external changes [3] - The overall sentiment towards the computer sector remains positive, with expectations for future market performance despite potential risks related to technology development and policy implementation [4]