Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the potential investment opportunities in the Hong Kong stock market as it approaches a year-end trading window, with favorable policy support for the consumer sector and low valuation levels in various sub-sectors [1][5][11]. Group 1: Market Insights - Hong Kong stocks are experiencing a year-end trading window, with quality assets entering a high cost-performance zone due to macroeconomic improvements and profit expectations [5]. - The Japanese central bank's recent interest rate hike to 0.75% is expected to improve overseas liquidity expectations, which may positively impact global markets [3]. - The U.S. stock market is anticipated to remain volatile, particularly high-valuation assets, as it navigates between revaluation and sentiment recovery [7]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The consumer sector is positioned for recovery, with multiple sub-sectors currently at historically low valuation levels, benefiting from policy support aimed at enhancing corporate profitability [11]. - Strong cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals, aluminum, chemicals, and machinery are expected to be key trading catalysts in the first quarter of 2026 [6]. - Industrial metals are projected to maintain a long-term positive trend despite short-term price pressures due to uncertainties in interest rates and the dollar [12]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The overall economic growth in 2026 is expected to remain under pressure, but investment may stabilize at low levels, with gradual improvements in consumption and resilient exports [10]. - The market is likely to transition from a valuation-driven rally to one supported by corporate earnings, with a focus on modernization and capacity expansion as key trends [10]. - The trust in the U.S. dollar is declining, which may influence global economic dynamics and investment strategies [15].
机构研究周报：港股迎交易窗口，政策利好消费板块