【有色】COMEX铜非商业净多头持仓处于1990年以来87%分位数——铜行业周报（20251215-1219）（王招华/方驭涛）

Core Viewpoint - The article maintains a positive outlook on copper prices, anticipating an upward trend due to supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic factors [4]. Macroeconomic Factors - The unemployment rate in the U.S. reached 4.6% in November, with an increased probability of interest rate cuts by January 2026 [4]. Supply and Demand - China's smelting plants have set the 2026 copper concentrate TC long-term benchmark at $0/ton, indicating better-than-expected profits for copper smelters. The operating rate of cable enterprises has slightly improved, and the Q4 peak season for power grids is still expected to support demand [4]. - The supply-demand situation remains tight, supporting the bullish outlook on copper prices [4]. Inventory Levels - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 1.7%, while LME copper inventory decreased by 3.3%. As of December 19, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory was 731,000 tons, down 4.3% from the previous week [5]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 706,000 tons as of December 15, 2025, up 2.3% from December 8, 2025 [5]. Production Data - In October 2025, global copper concentrate production decreased by 2.4% year-on-year but increased by 1.9% month-on-month. China's copper concentrate production was 130,000 tons, down 12.1% year-on-year and 8.1% month-on-month [6]. Smelting and Exports - In November 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1031 million tons, up 1.1% month-on-month and 9.8% year-on-year. The TC spot price was -$43.98/ton, remaining at a low level since September 2007 [7]. - Electrolytic copper exports surged by 116.8% month-on-month and 1128.1% year-on-year, while imports decreased by 3.9% month-on-month and 24.7% year-on-year [7]. Demand Insights - The operating rate of cable enterprises, which account for 31% of domestic copper demand, was 66.71%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous week. However, air conditioning production saw a significant year-on-year decline of 36.7% in November [8]. - The operating rate for brass rods, which represent 4.2% of domestic copper demand, was 50.2%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 6.7% but a year-on-year decrease of 4.7% [8]. Futures Market - As of December 19, 2025, the open interest for SHFE copper contracts increased by 43.3%, reaching 238,000 lots, which is in the 74th percentile since 1995. COMEX non-commercial net long positions rose by 17.0% week-on-week [9].