中金 | 电商出海2025：直面挑战，保持韧性

Core Viewpoint - Chinese cross-border e-commerce platforms demonstrate resilience and operational efficiency, maintaining strong growth despite external pressures and regulatory challenges, with a positive outlook for market share expansion in overseas markets [2][6]. Group 1: External Environment and Regulatory Challenges - The adjustment of tariff and small package tax exemption policies has become a major issue affecting cross-border e-commerce, with increasing global regulatory scrutiny [4][5]. - Since 2024, several countries, including the US and EU, have proposed or implemented the cancellation of small package tax exemption policies, aiming to protect local retail and manufacturing industries [4][5]. - The US has seen significant fluctuations in tariffs on Chinese goods, with an additional 20% tariff imposed on cross-border e-commerce products as of October 2025 [5]. Group 2: Growth and Market Dynamics - Despite regulatory headwinds, cross-border e-commerce is expected to grow, with a projected GMV increase of 12% in 2025, surpassing the growth rates of both Chinese e-commerce (11%) and global e-commerce (8%) [6][8]. - The four major Chinese cross-border e-commerce platforms are anticipated to achieve a GMV growth rate of 25% in 2025, contributing significantly to the overall market growth [6][8]. - By 2025, the total scale of the Chinese cross-border e-commerce industry is expected to reach $681.5 billion, with a CAGR of 11% from 2024 to 2027 [6]. Group 3: Strategic Trends in Cross-Border E-commerce - Localization and diversification are emerging as key strategies for cross-border e-commerce platforms to enhance resilience against policy risks [11][13]. - Platforms are increasingly focusing on localizing operations to improve customer retention and operational efficiency, with companies like Temu and SHEIN leading these efforts [11]. - The trend of geographic diversification is evident as platforms expand into Europe and emerging markets, mitigating risks associated with regulatory changes in specific regions [13][15]. Group 4: Profitability Outlook - Despite revenue pressures in 2026 due to European policy adjustments, profitability remains feasible driven by improvements in customer order value and repurchase frequency [3][27]. - The resilience of e-commerce platforms is expected to be stronger than that of brands, as platforms can better absorb tariff impacts through diversified supply chains and global operations [27][31]. - The long-term profit margins of Chinese cross-border e-commerce platforms are projected to align more closely with those of mature overseas e-commerce markets, benefiting from higher consumer spending and inflationary environments [31].