强者恒强，金银闪亮：申万期货早间评论-20251222

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the resilience of strong sectors in the market, highlighting significant sales in the duty-free sector in Sanya and the rebound in precious metals prices, particularly silver and copper, which reached historical highs [1][3]. Group 1: Market Overview - The State Council has called for proactive measures to ensure a strong start to the 14th Five-Year Plan, with Sanya's duty-free sales reaching 1.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 60% [1]. - The U.S. stock market saw gains, with major indices rising, particularly in the retail sector, while the banking sector lagged. The market's trading volume was 1.75 trillion yuan [2][12]. - The financing balance decreased by 3.32 billion yuan to 24.82556 billion yuan, indicating a tightening of liquidity [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year, below the expected 3.1%, while the core CPI increased by 2.6%, also below expectations [3][20]. - The U.S. non-farm payrolls added 64,000 jobs in November, exceeding the forecast of 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% [3][20]. Group 3: Precious Metals - Silver prices continued to rise, supported by the lower-than-expected CPI, which provides room for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][20]. - The long-term outlook for precious metals remains positive due to factors such as the weakening of the U.S. dollar's credibility and central bank gold purchases [3][20]. Group 4: Aluminum Market - The night session saw Shanghai aluminum prices increase by 0.93%. The U.S. core CPI's slowest growth since early 2021 has raised questions about its reliability, but the impact on the aluminum market is expected to be limited [4][20]. - Short-term aluminum prices are expected to stabilize, with a long-term optimistic outlook as demand remains steady despite some signs of weakening in downstream operations [4][20]. Group 5: Industry News - The European Commission proposed to relax the 2035 ban on the sale of fuel vehicles, seen as a concession to the traditional automotive industry facing pressure [7]. - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) aims to take on significant national technological tasks, particularly in critical areas where other enterprises lack capability [8]. Group 6: Shipping Index - The European shipping index saw a slight decline, with the SCFI index at $1,533 per TEU, reflecting lower-than-expected market conditions [32].