MicroLED，生死时刻

Core Insights - The validation phase for MicroLED technology is taking longer than expected, with Apple canceling its smartwatch project in 2024 marking a significant setback [1] - Despite a recovery in momentum anticipated for 2025, the pace of development is noticeably slowing, leading to more pragmatic expectations regarding the technology's applications and challenges [1] - MicroLED is currently in its incubation stage, with the first small-batch commercial products expected to launch in 2025, specifically a smartwatch display for Garmin and an external display for Sony-Honda electric vehicles, both produced by AUO [1] Industry Dynamics - The supply chain landscape is becoming clearer, with most leading display manufacturers either controlling or forming alliances with MicroLED chip manufacturers [3] - The transition of large-size TFT-based displays and LED-on-Silicon (LEDoS) is evolving into two increasingly independent supply chains and technology platforms, yet they face common fundamental technical challenges such as yield and efficiency of ultra-small chips [3] - Initial funding for startups is projected to grow by 10-15% in 2025, although this is below the peak levels seen in 2023, indicating a cautious investment environment [3] Technical Challenges - Achieving mass production capabilities is essential for MicroLED to gain legitimacy among potential customers, but premature investment poses risks of obsolescence [3] - MicroLED must deliver differentiated performance while keeping costs comparable to OLED, with key challenges including chip cost, performance, and manufacturing infrastructure [4] - For AR applications, LED-on-Si currently meets high brightness, high resolution, low power consumption, lightweight, and small size requirements, but it has not yet reached an ideal state [4]