摩根大通：2026年航空航天持续“高飞”，波音(BA.US)仍为首选

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley expects aerospace and defense stocks to receive broad support before 2026, with commercial aerospace being the most prominent highlight and U.S. defense stocks facing a more selective and politically complex environment [1][3]. Aerospace Sector - The demand fundamentals in the aerospace sector remain strong, supported by Boeing and Airbus's long-term production backlogs, continuous growth in global air traffic, and the aging commercial aircraft fleet [3]. - The gradual increase in aircraft production is expected to support growth for original equipment manufacturers and the aftermarket, particularly in the engine maintenance sector, which still faces significant capacity constraints [3]. Preferred Stocks in Aerospace - Boeing (BA.US), StandardAero (SARO.US), and ATI (ATI.US) are highlighted as preferred stocks in the aerospace sector due to visible production growth, margin expansion, and valuation support [4]. - Boeing is the top pick, with expectations of significant cash flow growth in the latter part of the decade as aircraft deliveries increase and defense business execution stabilizes [4]. - ATI is gaining attention due to increased exposure to aerospace and defense demand as customers seek alternatives to Russian titanium [4]. - Despite high valuations for stocks like GE Aviation (GE.US) and Howmet Aerospace (HWM.US) after significant price increases in 2025, the firm maintains a constructive view, believing that earnings momentum and ongoing aftermarket demand may continue to drive upward trends [4]. Defense Sector Complexity - The outlook for the defense sector is more complex, with rising global military spending amid increasing geopolitical tensions and shared responsibilities among U.S. allies [5]. - However, the political backdrop in the U.S. introduces uncertainty, as the current government aims to push the defense industrial base beyond traditional major contractors, complicating the investment outlook for large existing firms [5]. Preferred Stocks in Defense - L3Harris Technologies (LHX.US) is favored in the defense product sector due to expected single-digit revenue growth, margin expansion, and recovery in its Aerojet Rocketdyne business [5]. - In the services sector, Leidos (LDOS.US) is noted for its attractive valuation, profit potential, and cash deployment flexibility [5]. Rating Downgrade - Morgan Stanley downgraded Lockheed Martin's (LMT.US) rating from "Overweight" to "Neutral" due to concerns over long-term free cash flow growth, including pension-related headwinds and uneven execution in parts of its portfolio [6]. - While the missile business is expected to grow, the firm believes that market expectations for cash flow expansion appear overly optimistic [6]. - Overall, the industry is still positioned favorably for 2026, but investors should be increasingly selective, especially in the defense sector, where project execution, budget risks, and political dynamics may lead to differentiated returns [6].