【招银研究】开局之年——2026年宏观经济与资本市场展望①

Group 1: Macro and Strategy Overview - The article discusses the macroeconomic outlook for 2026, highlighting a "strong US and weak Europe" scenario, with the US economy expected to maintain steady growth supported by fiscal policies during the midterm election year [1][2] - The US Federal Reserve is anticipated to adopt a dovish stance, potentially lowering interest rates three times to around 3% [1][2] - The article warns of Japan potentially facing "stagflation," with rising inflation pressures possibly forcing the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates, contrasting with US and European central bank policies [1] Group 2: China's Economic Outlook - China's GDP growth is projected to reach 4.8% in 2026, characterized by stable external demand, improved internal demand, and price recovery [2][4] - The article outlines that fiscal policy will be more proactive, with a target deficit rate of 4.0%, corresponding to a deficit scale of 5.85 trillion yuan, and a total fiscal arrangement of 43 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from the previous year [2][4] - Monetary policy is expected to be moderately accommodative, with a potential reduction in the OMO rate by 10 basis points to 1.3% and a reserve requirement ratio cut of 50 basis points [3][4] Group 3: Capital Market Insights - The domestic stock market is expected to grow, with A-shares projected to rise to a central level of 4,300 points, driven by improved liquidity and corporate performance [3][4] - The bond market may experience fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to slightly rise to 1.8% [3][4] - Internationally, the article notes that the US stock market and Hong Kong stocks are likely to continue their upward trend, with the 10-year US Treasury yield expected to decrease to around 4.0% [3][4] Group 4: Asset Allocation Strategy - The article provides asset allocation recommendations for the next six months, suggesting a high allocation to Chinese government bonds and A-shares, while recommending a reduction in US dollar bonds [5] - It emphasizes an upward adjustment for growth-oriented stocks and technology sectors, particularly in the Hong Kong market [5]