广发刘晨明：拒绝传统宏观，从债务化解与盈利结构变化，看2026布局窗口

Core Viewpoint - The unique phenomenon of "AI tech stocks and resource commodities (gold, copper) rising simultaneously" in 2025 reflects a common pricing strategy among major economies addressing the core issue of debt. The resolution of debt relies on technological advancements to enhance total factor productivity (AI path) or through inflation to dilute debt (resource path), representing two sides of the same macroeconomic logic [1][8]. Group 1: Changes in Profit Structure - The profit structure of China's A-share market has fundamentally changed, evolving from a previous "80/20" model to a current "60% traditional domestic demand + 40% emerging industries and overseas" model. The overseas segment shows higher profit quality than domestic operations, becoming a core support for market resilience [1][9]. - The overseas revenue share of A-share companies has exceeded 20% and continues to rise, with overseas business margins significantly higher than domestic ones, indicating that overall profitability will not experience systemic decline even if domestic profits remain under pressure [9]. Group 2: Market Trends and Predictions - A-share ROE is expected to show a clearer upward trend, transitioning from a "fast bull" to a healthier "slow bull" market due to valuation constraints, enhanced regulatory oversight, and the entry of long-term incremental funds [1][16]. - The period from December to January is identified as a critical "buy the dip" window, with expectations of a "spring rally" in February to March, suggesting a favorable environment for investment in sectors that have undergone sufficient adjustments [4][22]. Group 3: Global Market Review - The performance of major markets, including the US, Germany, China, Japan, and South Korea, has shown a strong correlation in the rise of technology and resource sectors, particularly in non-ferrous metals, driven primarily by earnings growth rather than mere valuation expansion [5][6]. - The simultaneous rise of technology and resource assets, particularly gold and AI stocks, reflects a dual pricing strategy addressing the global debt issue, with both sectors benefiting from the same macroeconomic conditions [7][8]. Group 4: Supply Constraints and Industry Trends - Supply constraints are becoming a dominant variable in various industries, including AI computing power, semiconductors, and resource sectors, indicating that as long as supply cannot be rapidly expanded, industry trends are unlikely to change [20][21]. - The copper price is expected to replicate the upward trajectory of gold, driven by historically low global inventories and anticipated recovery in manufacturing due to fiscal and monetary easing [3][14][15]. Group 5: Funding Sources and Market Dynamics - Three relatively certain sources of incremental funds are identified: long-term funds represented by state-owned enterprises, insurance funds with increasing equity allocation, and high-net-worth individuals reallocating from low-yield fixed income to equities [18][19]. - The current market environment suggests a "slow bull" rather than a rapid bull market, with traditional macro indicators losing significance while industry trends, global demand, and supply constraints become more critical pricing factors [23].