2026 赌局：当 57% 的人都盯着 AI 泡沫，真正的猎人看哪里？

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the greatest risks in the market are often those that are overlooked, rather than the widely acknowledged fears such as the decline in tech stock valuations or AI bubble concerns [10][12][25]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Risks - A significant 57% of investors perceive the "collapse of tech stock valuations/AI retreat" as the biggest risk [10]. - This widespread concern may indicate that the risk is already priced in, as many institutions have likely hedged against it [13][14]. - The real danger lies in the "unpriced risks" that are not being considered by the majority, which could lead to unexpected market disruptions [15][19]. Group 2: Overlooked Risks - The article highlights "silent killers" such as global trade wars (2%), emerging market crises (0%), and commercial real estate collapses (1%) as significant threats that are largely ignored by the market [17]. - These risks, due to their low visibility, do not have any risk premium factored into their prices, making them potentially more dangerous [18]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Concerns - A notable concern is the aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with 27% of investors worried about this scenario [20]. - The article suggests that the Fed's traditional role as a market savior may not hold in 2026, especially if inflation remains sticky and the economy faces a private credit crisis [22][23]. - This could lead to increased market volatility, which may not present profitable opportunities but rather significant risks [23]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - To outperform the market in 2026, investors should not focus solely on the 57% of participants worried about tech stocks but instead look towards the overlooked areas that could present real risks [24][25]. - The article advises that smart money is currently paying attention to credit bonds and liquidity issues, indicating a shift in focus from past performance to future vulnerabilities [25][26].