国泰海通｜煤炭：煤价有底，预计26年开启需求上行周期

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector has confirmed its cyclical bottom in Q2 2025, with a reversal in supply-demand dynamics and sufficient release of downward risks [1]. Group 1: Coal Price Dynamics - The core driver of coal price trends is the supply-demand structure, with the current price drop having limited room for further decline, expected to bottom out at 680-700 RMB/ton [1]. - In November, coal prices are projected to rebound to over 800 RMB/ton, with imports slightly increasing by 5.9% to 44 million tons, while domestic supply is expected to recover to 430 million tons, although still down year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Seasonal Demand and Supply - As of December 19, 2025, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port is 721 RMB/ton, down 42 RMB/ton (-5.5%) from the previous week, indicating a stable domestic supply and reduced imports [2]. - The demand for coking coal is expected to improve significantly during the off-season, with the average daily iron output showing a slight decrease, suggesting that demand may remain strong [2]. Group 3: Industry Review - As of December 19, 2025, the price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1700 RMB/ton, up 50 RMB/ton (3.0%), while the inventory of coking coal across three ports is 2.797 million tons, down 7.1% [3]. - The offshore price of Q5500 coal at Newcastle, Australia, has decreased by 3 USD/ton (-3.8%), with domestic coal being 19 RMB/ton cheaper than imported coal [3].