除非农外，美国经济数据均弱于预期——海外周报第119期

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent economic data from the US, Eurozone, and Japan, highlighting that most data points are below expectations, indicating potential economic weakness and areas to monitor in the upcoming weeks [2][3][5]. Group 1: US Economic Data - November non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations, but other key economic indicators such as October retail sales, November CPI, and Michigan consumer confidence index fell short [2][11]. - Upcoming data to watch includes October durable goods orders, November industrial output, and December consumer confidence index [2][11]. - Weekly economic activity index in the US remained stable, while the German index showed a rising trend [17]. Group 2: Eurozone Economic Data - Eurozone data released this week, including the December monetary policy meeting results and October industrial output, met expectations, while December PMI for manufacturing and services fell short [3][12]. - No significant data releases are scheduled for the upcoming week in the Eurozone [4][12]. Group 3: Japanese Economic Data - Japan's economic indicators, including the quarterly manufacturing index and November CPI, aligned with expectations, while the December PMI showed improvement compared to the previous month [5][13]. - Key upcoming data includes December Tokyo CPI, November unemployment rate, and November industrial output [5][14]. Group 4: Employment and Demand - Initial jobless claims in the US decreased to 224,000, slightly better than expected, while continuing claims rose but remained below forecasts [24]. - The commercial retail sales growth in the US showed a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [20]. Group 5: Price and Financial Conditions - Commodity prices have declined, and US gasoline prices continued to drop, with the average price at $2.77 per gallon [32][33]. - Financial conditions in the Eurozone improved slightly, while those in the US remained stable [35]. - The spread-to-worst for high-yield US corporate bonds remained largely unchanged, indicating stable credit conditions [41]. Group 6: Fiscal Spending - As of December 18, total federal spending in the US reached approximately $7.537 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6%, compared to 3% in the same period last year [46].