张瑜：未来什么样？——基于高收入经济体的经济特征比较

Core Viewpoint - High-income economies maintain continuous growth in total factor productivity (TFP), which is crucial for sustained economic growth and transitioning from middle-income to high-income status. Key factors include structural transformation, technological advancement, and efficient factor allocation [2][4]. Group 1: Characteristics of High-Income Economies - Characteristic 1: High-income economies generally sustain continuous growth in total factor productivity. According to the Solow model, the ultimate factor for long-term economic growth is the improvement of TFP. Traditional high-income and catching-up economies experience a slowdown in TFP growth when GDP per capita approaches $10,000, yet still maintain positive growth. In contrast, middle-income economies see negative TFP growth when GDP per capita reaches $2,000 to $3,000 [4][16]. - Characteristic 2: Structural transformation factors—service sector leads, while industry maintains a dominant position. Mature deindustrialization occurs in high-income economies, characterized by a significant increase in service sector productivity, which approaches that of the industrial sector. This transition does not harm overall productivity. Conversely, middle-income economies face challenges due to premature deindustrialization, where service sector productivity lags behind industrial productivity [5][19]. - Characteristic 3: Technological advancement—catching-up economies invest heavily in research and education. R&D expenditure per capita is positively correlated with economic growth, with catching-up economies outspending traditional high-income economies. Education investment also correlates with economic growth, with catching-up economies outperforming traditional high-income economies in educational metrics [7][54]. Group 2: Export and Government Efficiency - Characteristic 4: The enhancement of export value-added is key to sustained export growth. High-income economies can maintain increasing per capita export values alongside economic growth, with a focus on higher value-added products. The Economic Complexity Index (ECI) indicates that high-income countries tend to export more complex products, which correlates with higher GDP per capita [8][59]. - Characteristic 5: Traditional high-income economies exhibit strong government intervention. Despite emphasizing "big market, small government," these economies rely on government regulation during early development stages. Government spending as a percentage of GDP stabilizes after GDP per capita exceeds $10,000. In contrast, catching-up economies show lower government intervention, with government spending around 25% of GDP [9][63]. Group 3: Population and Immigration - Characteristic 6: In the post-demographic dividend phase, immigration optimizes population factors. Net immigration contributes to labor force replenishment and alleviates aging issues. High-skilled immigrants enhance labor productivity and overall economic growth. Studies indicate that net immigration can permanently increase GDP per capita and reduce unemployment rates [10][71].